Despite widespread conjecture, several sources indicate that the decision has been made — and as soon as Feb. 28 at 5 a.m. local time, the first Ilyushin Il-76 transport plane carrying Belarusian paratroopers is quite likely to take off taking them to Ukraine.

It is unclear if the messages refer to Belarusian or Ukrainian time; 5 a.m. in Minsk corresponds to 4 a.m. in Kyiv.

Rumors of official Belarusian involvement in the war began to circulate on Feb. 27, the fourth day of Russia’s all-out assault on Ukraine, in response to a report submitted to diplomatic circles by unnamed Belarusian opposition journalists.

Belarusian forces could be dispatched to the Kyiv or Zhytomyr districts to aid the Russian invasion force, according to the letter.

Although the story could not be corroborated, other evidence of Belarusian military operations exist. A propaganda effort, led by Belarusian opposition media, was initiated to warn against Belarusian engagement.

As part of the effort, former high-ranking Belarusian airborne commander Valeriy Sakhashik urged all Belarusian paratroopers in a video message not to execute unlawful instructions that would send them into combat against a friendly nation.

On Feb. 27, several thousand Belarusian civilians demonstrated against the war around the country.

Additionally, as Ukraine’s presidential adviser Oleksiy Arestovych stated on Feb. 27, multiple pieces of evidence indicated that the Belarusian military had been placed on high alert.

Belarusian media reports that the country’s armed forces are comprised of about 45,000 military troops and 20,000 civilian employees. According to Arestovych, just 17,000 Belarusian military soldiers are capable of substantial combat effectiveness, implying that their involvement would be insignificant for Russia, which collected at least 150,000 forces for the invasion of Ukraine.

Lukashenko stated on Feb. 27 that Belarusians have begun to face violence in Ukraine and that Kyiv has threatened Belarus with terrorist actions. It echoed Putin’s justification for invading Ukraine on Feb. 24.

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky called Lukashenko on Feb. 27 amid worries, and the Ukrainian leader stated that Lukashenko reassured him of his country’s non-involvement in Russia’s war.

However, former Ukrainian Defense Minister Andriy Zagorodnyuk believes that the Belarusian despot, whose survival is greatly dependent on Putin, is forced to participate.

Belarus’s involvement, according to experts, would be an aggravating factor, albeit it would not have a dramatic effect on the war’s outcome. Lukashenko, in particular, may invade Ukraine’s northeastern areas, which Russia is not now focusing on.

“However, the Belarusian military is completely inexperienced in warfare,” Zagorodnyuk stated. “It is critical. And they are unmotivated; they have no idea what they will do in Ukraine.”

The media campaign warning Belarusian soldiers against supporting the Ukrainian assault has only just begun, and it must be sustained, Zagorodnyuk stated.

“I hope that if Lukashenko issues an order to enter, many will refuse to shoot at Ukrainians,” he stated. “If not, this will be a historic disaster for both peoples.”