Poland is in America intoxication. The historical models against which the media measure Joe Biden’s two-day visit are, firstly, John F. Kennedy’s appearance in the enclosed western part of Berlin in 1963, two years after the Wall was built, with the sentence “I am a Berliner” understood as a promise of protection.

And, secondly, Ronald Reagan’s speech at the Brandenburg Gate in 1987 with the prophetic demand: “Mister Gorbachev, tear down this wall!” Two years later the wall fell.

On Saturday, Biden will deliver a historic speech in the courtyard of Warsaw City Palace. In the open air, like their famous predecessors, Poland’s newspapers and TV stations, citing the White House, put citizens in the right mood.

Compared to the Cold War, the border between East and West has shifted 600 kilometres to the east, “but the challenge is the same,” writes “Rzeczpospolita”.

Pathos, support, invocation of freedom and democracy

There will be no lack of pathos, the will to freedom and promises of support in Biden’s speech. It is said to be about the “united front forming the free world in support of the Ukrainian people,” a determination to “hold Russia accountable for brutal warfare,” and “defending a future rooted in democratic has principles”.

Poland sees itself as the center of active Ukraine aid. No other country has taken in more refugees. More weapons for the Ukrainian resistance are smuggled through no other neighbouring state – in ways that are not publicly known, so as not to provoke Russian attacks.

According to this reading, the visit to Poland represents the true essence of the US President’s trip to Europe. The first two days in Brussels at the overlapping NATO, G7 and EU summits were the institutionally unavoidable but abstract part.

They discussed how to proceed, and declared the use of nuclear weapons or chemical warfare agents by Russia as a “red line”, to be followed by even tougher sanctions. And Biden promised to supply Europe with more liquefied natural gas to replace Russian natural gas and take in 100,000 war refugees.

In Poland, Biden comes close to touching the war

In Poland, Biden comes close to touching the war in Ukraine and its aftermath. On Friday afternoon, he and Poland’s President Andrzej Duda visited a reception center for war refugees in Rzeszow, a city with 183,000 inhabitants, a university and an airport for Air Force One-sized aircraft, 90 kilometres from the border with Ukraine.

Poland has taken in 2.2 million refugees so far, almost ten times as many as Germany, which has more than twice the population and six times the economic power.

But before Biden and Duda can praise the helpfulness, the program must be changed. The Polish presidential plane has technical problems, has to make an emergency landing and return to Warsaw. Then Duda flies again in the direction of Rzeszow with a replacement aircraft. So Biden’s visit to US troops is brought forward.

Only then do they go to the refugees and their Polish helpers. Citizens hosting Ukrainians in their private homes and civil society initiatives are bearing the brunt of the aid.

Praise for refugee aid, with government and opposition representatives
On Saturday, Biden will once again highlight this generous support. Accompanied by Duda and the Mayor of Warsaw, Rafal Trzaskowski, who was the presidential candidate of the opposition against Duda, the US President wants to meet refugees at the National Stadium.

They are queuing for the allocation of a “Pesel”: the personal identification number common in Poland, which gives them the same access to medical care, social services and places for their offspring in kindergartens and schools as Polish citizens.

An appointment between Biden’s arrival in Rzeszow and the speech in Warsaw is particularly important to the guest and the hosts. A visit to US troops in the host country is a must on any presidential trip.

Poland wants a signal to go out from this. The US 82nd Airborne Division in the eastern Subcarpathians is one of the units with which NATO has increased the protection of the eastern flank from the Baltic States in the north to Romania in the south-east in the weeks since the beginning of the war: to 40,000 men. A quarter of this comes from Poland.

Hope for two US divisions as permanent military presence

It is hoped in Warsaw that this reinforcement will last and be further expanded. At the Madrid summit in June, the alliance should lift the voluntary self-restraint it imposed on itself when the NATO-Russia Founding Act was signed in 1997, demands the head of the National Security Bureau, Pawel Soloch. It belongs to Duda’s presidential office.

At that time, NATO declared, in order to accommodate Russia in the spirit of the hoped-for new partnership, that it was not planning to permanently station any large contingents of troops in the eastern member states. Nor will they set up any major infrastructure there, such as regional headquarters, provided, of course, that the security situation does not change.

But that has now changed fundamentally, says Soloch. Russia had withdrawn the basis for the declaration of intent with the attack on Ukraine.

The opposition argues similarly. “This is a good moment to increase the American contingent in Poland to 30,000 soldiers, expand air defenses and set up permanent military bases and magazines for heavy weapons,” says Tomasz Siemoniak, defense minister until the national-populist PiS won the 2015 elections.

“That corresponds to the traditional Polish desire for two divisions.” They are the upper limit in the stationing contract with the USA.

The relationship between the presidents is strained, Duda courted Trump

The war has dramatically changed the political lines of conflict. This can be seen in the way Biden and Duda deal with each other. Your relationship is strained. Duda maintained good relations with predecessor Donald Trump.

Biden warned PiS of serious consequences if they emulate Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and destroy pillars of democracy, such as free media and the independence of the judiciary. And now, in a speech in Warsaw of all places, does Biden want to invoke a future that has its roots in the principles of democracy?

The White House explains Biden’s close alliance with Duda with three factors. Poland’s hospitality to war refugees and support for arms aid to Ukraine is important.

And President Duda opposed the PiS in two central conflicts. With his veto, he prevented the PiS from withdrawing the broadcasting license from the opposition broadcaster “tvn 24”. The majority shareholder is the US company Discovery. And Duda has promised the dissolution of the controversial disciplinary chamber for judges.

Limits of US solidarity with Poland

At the same time, Biden sets limits to solidarity with Poland. He does not respond to Warsaw’s demand that NATO sends peacekeeping troops to Ukraine if Russia uses chemical warfare agents.

He had previously declined to help Poland deliver MiG fighter jets to Ukraine. The Ukrainian Air Force is trained on these machines. Poland is continuously switching to US jets and can give up the MiGs. But when Putin threatened to attack such weapons aid, Warsaw did not want to take the risk and suggested transferring the machines to the US base in Ramstein, Germany. From there they could fly to Ukraine.

According to Polish calculations, Putin would not dare to attack a US base in Germany. Biden declined. He does not want to risk direct conflict with Russian forces. Because it could become a world war.