The future of the International Space Station (ISS) is shrouded in great uncertainty due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the sanctions that the West has imposed on the invading country. Now, Roscosmos recalled the ultimatum that gives its partners until Thursday to lift restrictions on the space sector.

“March 31 is the last day that NASA, the European Space Agency (ESA) and the Canadian Space Agency (CSA) have to respond to our request that they lift sanctions against two of our civilian companies”; TsNIIMash, Mechanical Engineering Research, and the Progress Rocket Space Center said Roscosmos Director General Dmitri Rogozin.

The answer will form the basis for a decision on their willingness to extend the life of the international orbital platform until 2030, as well as on the resumption of joint flights with NASA.

For now, the Russian government plans to participate in the ISS until 2024, with the intention of launching its own station afterwards.

In Russia’s opinion, the station, which was put into orbit in 1998 and was to have a useful life of 15 years, would have to be injected “an enormous amount of money” to repair it and prevent it from disintegrating “into pieces” before 2030.

SANCTIONS AND COUNTERMEASURES

The Western sanctions imposed on Russia involve restrictions on the export of goods and high technology with the intention of weakening its strategic sectors, including the military and its aerospace industry.

In response, Russia stopped cooperation with European partners for launches from the Kourou Cosmodrome in French Guiana; it stopped supplying rocket engines to the US and demanded that future Roscosmos contracts be charged only in rubles.

Roscosmos also cancelled the launch of British OneWeb communication satellites, after the company itself, with the support of the Government, ceased the future launching of its Soyuz rocket devices from the Russian Baikonur cosmodrome, and signed an agreement with SpaceX, Elon Musk’s company.

Rogozin has estimated at 12,000 million dollars (10,938 million euros) the damage caused to the West by Roscosmos refusing to launch these satellites and supply engines for launch vehicles.

IS THE ISS, IMPOSSIBLE WITHOUT RUSSIA?

But Moscow believes that the damage may be much greater in terms of international cooperation on the ISS, which this year will celebrate 22 years of human presence.

The threat that Russia could withdraw from the project raises, in the opinion of Roscosmos, a series of questions, especially for the US.

NASA has acknowledged that attempts to separate the US from the Russian segment “would pose significant security and logistical challenges gave the multitude of external and internal connections, the need to control the pitch and altitude of the spacecraft, and the interdependence of software.”

Rogozin maintains that it is impossible to control the ISS without the participation of Russia since it is the country responsible for the orientation of the station and the forecast of dangerous collisions, as well as the supply of fuel and cargo.

The orbit corrections of the international orbital platform and all the propulsions are made with the engines of the Zvezdá service module of the Russian segment or with the Progress cargo ships.

“If you block cooperation with us, who will save the ISS from an uncontrolled exit from its orbit and its fall on the territory of the USA or Europe?” the CEO and former journalist recently asked in a tweet.

“There is a possibility that this 500-tonne structure could fall on India and China. Do you want to threaten them with that prospect? The ISS does not fly over Russia, so all risks are yours. Are you prepared for it? Gentlemen, when you study sanctions, check those who generate them to see if they have Alzheimer’s disease, ”she said.

AMERICAN ALTERNATIVES

The Cygnus commercial cargo ship of the American company Northrop Grumman is the only ship that “is currently undergoing tests to provide a limited capacity for future reactivations”, NASA recently stated.

For now, however, “it does not have the capability to replace the space station’s tilt control functions or to perform thrusts suitable for long-term sustained operations,” he admitted.

Russia’s partners “will try to create a replacement for us with their cargo ships, with their manned ships, but this will take years,” Rogozin warned.

Until recently, the Russian Soyuz spacecraft was the only method of transportation for NASA and other international astronauts after leaving the US in July 2011 its shuttle program.

In May 2020, the first astronauts arrived on the orbital platform in SpaceX’s Crew Dragon capsule. And NASA has hired three companies to resupply the ISS: in addition to Northrop Gruman, SpaceX and the Sierra Nevada.

The US also has rockets for trips to the ISS, such as SpaceX’s Falcon 9, Atlas-5 and Antares, but in these last two cases, Russia will no longer supply the engines used for these launch vehicles.

NASA Administrator Bill Nelson has said the US will continue to cooperate with partners, including Russia, to continue operations on the ISS.

On Wednesday, astronaut Mark Vande Hei will return to Earth aboard the Russian Soyuz MS-19 spacecraft.