Repeated attempts by top US military and defense leaders to speak to their Russian counterparts have been rebuffed by Moscow over the past month, leaving the world’s two biggest nuclear powers in the dark about explanations for the moves. military and raising fears of a major miscalculation. or accident on the battlefield.

Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and General Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, have tried to set up phone calls with Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and General Valery Gerasimov, but the Russians “so far they have refused to participate,” Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said in a statement Wednesday.

The Austin and Milley call attempts, which have not been previously reported, come as Russia conducts operations near the borders of NATO members Poland and Romania, while the United States and its European allies conduct aerial surveillance operations. over the Baltic Sea and dump weapons and equipment into Ukraine by land transport.

Moscow and Washington maintain a conflict resolution channel, but current and former officials say contact from senior military leaders is needed to avoid unnecessary escalation or confusion.

“There is a high risk of escalation without the firewall of direct contact between top officials,” said James Stavridis, who served as Supreme Allied Commander in NATO from 2009 to 2013. “Very young people are flying jets, operating ships of war, and conducting combat operations in the Ukrainian war. They have not experienced diplomats, and their actions in the heat of operations can be misunderstood.”

“We must avoid a scenario where NATO and Russia sleepwalk into war because top leaders can’t pick up a phone and explain to each other what’s going on,” he added.

Russia’s recent use of hypersonic missiles and other sophisticated weapons against targets in western Ukraine has underscored the threat of a spillover into a broader confrontation.

“The risks are obviously elevated right now,” said Rob Lee, a senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute.“Russia is attacking targets in western Ukraine, which are not far from the border with NATO members., and the Ukrainian Air Force apparently continues to operate from that region, which means there is a risk that its planes could be mistaken for NATO planes throughout the territory border.”

US defense officials have described phone contacts as a tactical mechanism to avoid miscalculations, especially when it comes to protecting NATO airspace or territory, but its functionality may be limited.

“It’s not set up to be a complaint line where you can just call and complain about things,” a US defense official said this week when asked if anything had been communicated through the channel. The official spoke on the condition of anonymity under ground rules established by the Pentagon.

Sam Charap, a senior political scientist at the Rand Corporation, said the Austin and Milley calls have a “fundamentally different purpose” from the de-escalation channel.

“One is about tactical accident prevention. The other one is about strategic engagement,” he said. “It is always important to stay strategic in order to clearly communicate our interests and better understand theirs. When there is no communication at that level, your worst-case assumptions, often based on poor information, are more likely to drive your behavior.”

As setbacks on Russia’s battlefield become more pronounced and the conflict enters its first month, US officials worry that Russian President Vladimir Putin may escalate militarily in hopes of changing the trajectory of the war. war. As more dangerous weapons and tactics are deployed, the risks of a broader conflict increase.

“A nightmare scenario would be a Russian missile or attack aircraft destroying a US command post across the Polish-Ukrainian border,” said Stavridis, a retired admiral. “A local commander might respond immediately, thinking the event was the precursor to a broader attack. This could lead to rapid and irreversible escalation, including the potential use of nuclear weapons.”

Stavridis said that when he was Supreme Allied Commander, he could call his Russian counterpart at any time “and he did so on several occasions to clarify a situation and reduce tension.”

The Pentagon believes that engagement between US and Russian defense leaders is “critically important at this time,” Kirby said. In addition to the conflict resolution channel, the United States and Russia can also participate through the defense attaché at the US Embassy in Moscow or by relaying messages to the Ministry of Defense.

Communications between the United States and Russia have been much more sparse since the war began last month. The US ambassador to Russia, John J. Sullivan, has been meeting with Russian officials more frequently, with intermittent visits and calls in Moscow. President Joe Biden’s national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, spoke last week with his counterpart, Nikolay Patrushev, for the first time since the start of the conflict. Some US and Russian military officials met last week at the Russian Defense Ministry, CNN first reported.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken has not attempted any talks with his counterpart, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, since the start of the conflict, according to US officials.

It is unclear why Russia’s top generals have refused to hold calls with their American counterparts.

“I suspect the problem lies in Russia’s insistence that this is a ‘special military operation’ and unwillingness to admit the true nature of the war,” said Angela Stent, a Russian scholar at Georgetown University who served as a senior intelligence officer in the Bush administration.

The generals may also be waiting for Putin’s approval to make the calls, given how much is at stake in the conflict, and he may not approve, Charap said.

Another theory is that Putin may now see the US as a determined adversary hell-bent on his downfall and not worth fighting. Russian officials bristled when Biden called Putin a “war criminal,” saying it could lead to a complete breakdown in relations.

Biden has tried to avoid conflict by keeping US troops out of Ukraine and US planes out of its airspace.

“You’re talking about avoiding incidents with aircraft or at sea,” said Ben Hodges, a retired Army officer who served as commanding general of the US Army in Europe. “I’m sure they would have wanted to convey to Gerasimov and Shoigu that Russian pilots should not launch missiles too close to the Polish border, but they would also want to talk about other places, not just Ukraine, where there are Russians aircraft.”

“I also imagine that they would want to convey: this is what we are doing, do not interpret what we are doing as an act of provocation,” he added.