The “flight” to the dollar – even if they are limited amounts – is explained by an annual variation rate of the Consumer Price Index of 58% annualized. The monthly variation measured by the Index has been 6.1% so the accumulated inflation in 2022 is 23.1%.
The accumulated figure for the first quarter of the year was 23.1%. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May will be released on Tuesday, June 14; the spokeswoman for the Presidency, Gabriela Cerruti, assured at the end of the week that the index will be less than the 6% marked in April.
Between January and April 2021, the monetary authority had sold US$301 million to meet the demand of individuals for hoarding. The evolution during the first months of this year was as follows: January US$184 million, February US$182 million, March US$165 million, and April US$138 million.
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The first two periods show the impact of summer vacations, a trend that was also observed last year. The price of the savings dollar on Friday was $205.94, a value that is reached after applying 65% of taxes.
Individuals who do not register any state contribution are authorized to purchase up to US$200 per month. But that amount is reduced if the saver, for example, made a purchase in dollars by credit card.
They cannot acquire official dollars: monotributistas with current loans; MEP or “Bolsa” dollar buyers must wait 90 days from the last transaction; those who have received their salaries through ATP and debtors of plans taken with NOW 12. Unlike other times, the value of the savings dollar is at par with the “blue”.
The blue dollar fell at the end of the week for the second consecutive round and closed at $206.50, while the financial exchange rates closed the week stable, according to the main market prices.
In the informal market, the parallel currency lost 50 cents and fell 0.24%, while the buying point ended the week at $203.50 and remained above the solidarity currency for the fourth consecutive session.
The gap between the blue-collar and the official wholesale exchange rate was 72.7%, higher than that registered a week ago, and with the official retail rate, it fell to 65.5%. The dollar without taxes rose 19 cents to $124.81 for sale and at Banco Nación the note advanced 25 cents to $124.50 at the selling point.
The savings or solidarity dollar, which includes taxes, rose 32 cents to $205.94 and remained the cheapest retail exchange rate. The wholesaler rose 14 cents to $119.55 and was up $1.07 for the week, up slightly from a $1.05 gain the previous week.
Among the financial exchange rates, the cash with settlement remained stable at $213.32, and the gap with the official one is located at 78.4%. The stock market dollar MEP also traded unchanged at $211.31, just as the cash with a settlement reached the highest value in a month, and the gap continued at 76.7%.
Sufficient credit but with high rates
The Government placed debt for $156,740 million on Friday and covered the highest monthly maturities of the year, while it closed May with extra financing of $56,590 million, according to the Ministry of Economy.
The aggressive debt placement policy is in line with the goals agreed upon with the IMF, for which -without access to international markets- the domestic market is key to sustainability, but also to risk as to the government issues inflation-adjustable bonds that rise more than the exchange rate. Thus, debt “in pesos” can be more dangerous than that issued in dollars.
In the placement, 779 offers were received for $172,996 million, awarding an effective value of $156,740 million. In May, a total of maturities of $920,020 million were faced and it was the most demanding month so far this year.
After this tender, the Treasury accumulates in May net financing of $56,588 million, which implies a monthly refinancing rate of 106%, remaining the second round that will take place next Monday with the banks that make up the Creators of Market.
The menu of instruments offered in this tender was made up of 7 securities maturing in 2022, 2023, 2024, and 2025. In this Friday’s tender, 33% corresponded to instruments maturing in 2022, 58% in 2023, 4% in 2024, and the remaining 5% to titles that capitalize in 2025.
64% of the awarded amount was in instruments adjustable by the Reference Stabilization Coefficient (CER) that adjust for inflation, 30% in fixed-rate instruments, and the remaining 6% in variable-rate securities.
In the first five months of the year, the Treasury accumulated extra financing of $629,528, which implies a rollover rate of 122%. The next tender will take place on Tuesday, June 14, according to the preliminary schedule of tenders for the first half of 2022.
The Central Bank ended the week with a positive balance of US$170 million, after buying around US$60 million on Friday and the accumulated figure for the month reaches US$935 million.
The data is significant and put in perspective of the reading of the fulfillment of agreements with the IMF. Guillermo Bermúdez warned in the last report for Fiel, that concerning the goal of accumulation of Net International Reserves (NIR), a quarterly objective path was established for 2022 and annual goals until 2024.
The BCRA should add US$5.8 billion to its balance sheet in 2022, starting with US$1.2 billion at the end of March, US$4.1 billion at the end of June, and US$4.4 billion at the end of September.
“According to the above, the greatest effort to increase the RIN stock must be made in the second quarter -in coincidence with the period of greatest seasonality in the liquidation of foreign exchange from the thick harvest-, although the funds to be incorporated in the fourth quarter They are not negligible, since it means that the entity must obtain an additional US$ 1,400 million”.
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