The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has escalated in recent weeks, so speculation about possible damage to Mexico, derived from the tensions between the two Eastern European countries, has also been present in the discussions that revolve around to Vladimir Putin ‘s recent decision to invade Ukraine .

Recently, Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) stated that the conflict will not have repercussions on the hydrocarbon market because there will be no impact on fuel prices and explained that the Mexican Government has the necessary contracts to receive them. .

However , several analysts have pointed out that the variations in the exchange rates that the conflict has generated will have a direct impact on the costs of gasoline and gas at the international level, which would result in a rise in the percentages of inflation to global level, including Mexico. In the country alone, inflation levels once again exceeded 7%, according to the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi), a situation that could be prolonged by the armed conflict.

According to specialists , the price of gasoline would increase because Russia would stop supplying fuel to Europe , for which the United States would be the main supplier and would leave other importers, such as Mexico, with high prices due to the high energy demand. .

Another impact on the economy derived from the tensions between Russia and Ukraine would be in the high cost of prices in the supply of nitrogenous fertilizers. This is because, according to Expansión, Mexico was the sixth largest importer of nitrogenous fertilizers in the world and the seventh largest importer of the chemical compound urea, with Russia being the main origin of the country’s purchases abroad.

In this way, ” an eventual conflict between Russia and Ukraine could limit the global supply of fertilizers and, therefore, raise prices to a level even higher than that registered in 2021 ,” explained Adrián Duhalt, a postdoctoral researcher at the financial magazine. energy issues at the Baker Institute at Rice University, Houston.

For his part, Kenneth Smith, former chief negotiator of the Treaty between Mexico, the United States and Canada (TMEC) , indicated in an interview with Milenio, that another problem in the Mexican economy as a result of the conflict is the increase in the price of grains. and cereals such as wheat and rice , among others; which could translate into rising costs for consumers depending on the duration of the war problem.

This Thursday, February 24, AMLO assured that Mexico already has a plan to mitigate the ravages that the conflict between Ukraine and Russia may cause in the international economy and specifically in the country. He said he has a plan so that resources such as gas and electricity do not increase in price.

“We have been prepared for some time so that if the price of imported gas increases a lot, we can start up all the electric power generation plants that do not require it, to avoid the increase in costs ,” he shared.

In addition, within the framework of the beginning of the armed attacks in Eastern Europe, the president reaffirmed the Mexican position already expressed by the head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (SRE), Marcelo Ebrard Casaubón : avoid war and solve problems by the diplomatic route.

“In terms of foreign policy we are going to continue to conduct ourselves promoting that there is dialogue, that force is not used, that there is no invasion. We are not in favor of any war , ”said the Tabascan.