A tropical storm watch has been issued for the east and west coasts of Florida, including Miami, Sarasota, Key West, West Palm Beach and Melbourne, while a potential tropical cyclone near the Yucatan Peninsula has been designated, according to the National Hurricane Center.
A potential cyclone is a term used to describe a weather mismatch that is not yet a depression or tropical storm, but is forecast to become one and threaten the mainland within 48 hours.
Maximum sustained winds are currently 56 km/h and the system is expected to strengthen to a Tropical Depression this Friday and possibly to Tropical Storm Alex in the afternoon or evening.
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Based on the current forecast track, the system should move across south and central Florida this Saturday. Heavy rain and flooding will be the main threat from the storm, with rainfall totals ranging from 4 to 8 inches, with 12 inches of rain in the southern half of the state and the Keys. Flood watches are already in effect for much of South Florida, including Miami.
When a tropical storm watch or warning is issued, that means there is a chance that people within those watches or warnings will experience tropical storm weather conditions for the next several days.
For the storm to be named Alex, the first name of the 2022 hurricane season, the system will have to strengthen and reach sustained winds of 62 km/h or higher. This storm system may very well remain a tropical depression and may never gain the wind strength to earn a name.
“Whether the storm organizes or not, significant flooding is possible in South Florida and the Keys,” says CNN meteorologist Chad Myers. “It’s too early to say where the heaviest rains will be because it’s not a storm yet, but models indicate 12-16 inches of rain is possible in the hardest-hit areas.”
“There is still some variability in how this system will play out, but heavy rainfall capable of dispersing numerous flash floods across South Florida and into the Keys is certainly plausible,” the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) said. for its acronym in English) this Thursday morning.
They forecast a moderate risk, level 3 of 4, of excessive precipitation, which could lead to flash flooding.
Deep tropical moisture will surge ahead of the likely storm and over southern Florida throughout Friday and into Saturday.
