“Ukraine could be tomorrow’s East Asia,” says Fumio Kishida in an allusion to Taiwan. Chinese Defense Minister Wu Qian does not contradict the Japanese Prime Minister: ” If someone dares to separate Taiwan from China, the Chinese army will start a war “, he says in Singapore during the Shangri- The on security.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has led to drastic changes in Tokyo’s perception of security. Japan faces a triple threat: that of China, North Korea and Russia . The only Asian country member of the G7, a major ally of the United States, Japan participates in international sanctions against Russia, delivers non-offensive equipment to Ukraine and welcomes Ukrainian refugees.

For Fumio Kishida, the international community has been at a crossroads since Russia invaded Ukraine. Following the example of Germany, Japan will increase its defense spending and strengthen its role in regional security. By allocating, for example, two billion dollars to the navies of the countries of the Indo-Pacific region.

Counter the Chinese neighbor and get closer to the West

The geopolitical ambitions of China, an ally of Russia, concern Japan. During Joe Biden’s visit to Tokyo in May, during which the American president expressed his readiness to use force to defend Taiwan against a possible Chinese attack, Russian Tu-95, and Chinese Xian H- 6 flew for 13 hours over the seas of Japan and China. Gathered in Tokyo last month, the Quad, this informal alliance of the United States, Japan, Australia, and India, must serve as a counterweight to the influence of China and Russia in Asia-Pacific.

At the same time, Fumio Kishida wants to maintain closer ties with NATO, considering that, in the field of security, Europe and Asia share the same concerns. Japan has already concluded defense agreements with several NATO member countries. Joint military exercises took place in the archipelago between French, Japanese, and American soldiers. Japan cooperates with France and Great Britain in the production of defense equipment.

By getting closer to NATO, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida also aims to modify the country’s pacifist constitution, article 9 of which prohibits him from resorting to war to resolve conflicts. A revision of the Constitution would allow Japan to participate in a system of collective defense and to acquire preventive attack capabilities, but also to integrate more into the strategy of its American ally.