We are moving towards the siege of Kyiv. Russia will in all likelihood find itself conducting three sieges simultaneously on three major cities: Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Mariupol. Kherson in the south of the country would be the first city to fall into Russian hands. After stubborn resistance, it was totally conquered by the Russians, Mayor Igor Kolykhaiev said in the evening. A group of about ten officers of the invasion forces entered the municipal offices and reportedly informed the mayor that the Russians plan to set up a new administration similar to those of the two breakaway regions of Donetsk and Lugansk. The city had been raining missiles and cluster bombs for two days. Today new talks in Belarus. After a week of the war, how do the scenarios change? The only tragic certainty is that the Kremlin’s “new” military strategies will lead to an increase in civilian casualties.

The war of movement has turned into a siege war

“The western encirclement of Kyiv – writes the French military historian Michel Goya in an analysis published by Le Grand Continent – continues with the 36th Army and the 76th Air Assault Division”. Units awaiting reinforcements from the 64km slow approaching convoy from the North. “The war of movement has turned into a siege war – continues Goya -. It is now clear that the Russian army is preparing for a long-term battle”.

In the next few days, Russia will most likely find itself carrying out three sieges of three major cities simultaneously. An unprecedented situation. Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Mariupol in the South: “It is a territory that roughly corresponds to four times the area of ​​Grozny in Chechnya, which the Russian army took five to six weeks to conquer – explains Goya – It is one colossal effort that will absorb most of the Russian infantry and will require the intervention of the auxiliaries of the National Guard, which include units from Chechnya and Dagestan, which are not regular armies, as well as all available militias “.

War in Ukraine, Zelensky: “We will rebuild the cities, Russia will have to pay damages”

“The Russian attack focuses on three main lines – explains analyst Andrea Margelletti in the Press – the northern one, which aims to reach and conquer the capital Kyiv; the eastern one, which on the one hand is concentrated in the Sumy and Kharkiv oblasts and from ‘other in the Donbas region; and finally the southern one, which starting from Crimea unravels both towards the Kherson and Mykolaiv oblasts and towards that of Zaporizhia “. But “the Russian offensive seems to have stopped for the moment: timid but regular progress has been made in the east and south, while in the north the Russian forces have now been stationary for days about thirty kilometers north-west of Kyiv, without being able to break through the Ukrainian defensive line placed in defense of the capital “.

In practice, the failure to conquer important objectives (such as Kyiv or Kharkiv, which resist) and the poor progress on the ground led the Russians to change their tactics during the last days of the conflict, explains Margelletti: “From attempting an advance quickly and quickly with the ground forces they passed to a campaign of intense bombing against the main inhabited centers, using, in addition to aircraft and missile assets, artillery systems and unguided rockets. This dynamic unfortunately translates into an increase in the risk of civilian casualties and attacks on non-military targets “. Putin’s troops have a clear goal: to conquer big cities militarily. Rockets and missiles are more dangerous than airstrikes for the civilian population.

The differences from the invasions of the past

In the last century. when the Soviet Union invaded a foreign country (the list is dramatically long: Hungary 1956, Czechoslovakia 1968, Poland 1981, even if then the Polish general Jaruzelski put in place a spell of self-coup to avoid the invasion, Afghanistan 1979) always had the ready-made alternative solution in hand, at least immediately: that is, a certain number of citizens of the invaded countries ready to collaborate with the invasion forces. Political parties or sections of the armed forces that the governments in their countries were illegitimate and that the Russian-Soviets were right. The Red Army gave him the government. Not this time. Putin has no alternative in hand. Or he had it, someone took it away from him (it has not escaped many that Ukrainian President Zelensky made some veiled hints about it, talking about the arrests of spies). From Putin’s point of view, he writes about today  Giovanni Gozzini, professor of History and Journalism at the University of Siena, “this complicates things a lot and perhaps helps to explain the current slowdown in military operations. If there is no alternative civilian government, the Russian army must continue to garrison a very large country for a long time. A scenario similar to what Russia has experienced in Afghanistan and Chechnya is looming: a dripping of terrorist attacks across the country, deaths among Russian soldiers, growing discontent in the country. risks becoming deadly “.

Ukraine-Russia: the second round of talks today

The second round of talks will take place today in the Belarusian forest of Belovezkskaja Pushcha, near Viskuli, near Brest. The Russian delegation is led by Vladimir Medinsky. “We will not accept any ultimatum”. repeated the Ukrainian Foreign Minister, Dmytro Kuleba. “The fixed points of the Russians – explains a source to Sole 24 Ore – the neutrality of Ukraine and a special status for the Donetsk and Luhansk regions remain. In the first round of the talks, there was a consensus on 90% of the issues, now it is a question of smoothing the corners to rise with a third-round to a higher level that goes beyond the two countries “. Perhaps involving a third party who can work between Russia and the United States: the desired name is that of Angela Merkel The former chancellor is considered an interlocutor who knows the history and relations between the two countries well and has experience in Europe.

Ukrainians and Russians talk to each other again in the bison forest, not only the oldest nature reserve in Europe but above all the place where the agreements that ratified the dissolution of the Soviet Union were signed 31 years ago. Today’s round two includes two important, founding issues: the ceasefire and security guarantees for Ukraine. Russian chief negotiator Vladimir Medinsky, Putin’s trusted former minister, revisionist, a politician with extremist positions who has always declared “Ukraine is not a state”, to the Russian agency Interfax he assured us that the hypothesis of a ceasefire is on the table. Representing Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky are People’s Party President David Arakhamia and Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov. The leader asked them that in the negotiations the Russian counterpart provide concrete indications for the guarantee of the security of the Ukrainian nation. The Russian Foreign Minister, Sergej Lavrov, opened on this front by hinting at the possibility that Ukraine can remain intact, including the two provinces of the disputed Donbas: “Russia is ready to examine the issue of security guarantees” and is It is possible, Lavrov said, “to find an agreement. Our requests do not aim at the capitulation of Ukraine”.

Is there really a truce on the table? Is it possible that he decides to stop, in view of the new negotiations with the Ukrainians? “Putin wants to consolidate military results in order to have a stronger position at the negotiating table. The problem, after what he has done, is whether and how much he can be granted – reasons Defense Minister Lorenzo Guerini speaking to Repubblica  – His goal was to oust Zelensky, who today is instead a point of reference for his people, but also for the international community. Now it is important to understand the sincerity of the Russian approach to the negotiation. hard: the other day, with the first round of talks, the Russian attacks intensified “.

Protests in Russia against the war

“We can’t wait a day longer. Wherever you are, in Russia, Belarus, or on the other side of the planet, go to the main square of your city every day at 7 pm, and at 2 pm on weekends and holidays.” From the prison where he has been locked up for more than a year now, Alexey Navalny urges the Russians to demonstrate against the invasion of Ukraine, against the war ordered by Putin which is bringing death and destruction to the heart of Europe.

“Putin is not Russia”, writes the number one rival of the Kremlin on social networks, behind bars for reasons considered clearly political. “And if at this moment in Russia there is something you can be proud of more than anything else, it is those 6,835 people who were arrested because – without any call – they took to the streets with the No to War signs “.

The US fears a years-long war

“Six days ago, Putin tried to shake the foundations of the free world, thinking he was bending it to his menacing ways. But he miscalculated. He thought he could get to Ukraine and the world would bow down. Instead, he met a wall of force. that he had never foreseen or imagined. He met the Ukrainian people. ” These are the words of Joe Biden in the State of the Union address. However it turns out, he “may surround Kyiv with tanks, but he will never win the hearts and souls of the Ukrainian people. He will never extinguish their love of freedom. He will never weaken the resolve of the free world.” Translated, it means that Westerners must arm and train the insurrection, which will continue even after the eventual fall of Kyiv and could last twenty years, on the model of 1980s Afghanistan.

Biden summarizes today Repubblica is opposed to the “no-fly zone” over Ukrainian skies because an accident would cause the Third World War, which for the Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov “would be nuclear”. All military developments, however, depend on Putin, who is increasingly unstable, and we must be ready for anything. Especially since, according to UN ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield, Moscow is moving cluster and thermobaric bombs.